"RNH PowerPlay FO% dilema"

This picture was taken during July 2011 Development Camp

'Mike Sillinger was working with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on faceoff techniques'

For those of you who know me personally you have heard me bring this up on several occasions as the games continue to be played. For those who may not know me on a personal level, I thought I would bring to attention some observations from my point of view. I realize I am not the Oilers Coach or could I ever be, however sometimes it becomes increasingly hard to watch how the development process unfolds, when I see things happen that I tend to disagree with.

In this post I am just wanting to bring to attention one area of concern that I see as this team moves forward into the 2011/12 season. Faceoffs! I spoke during rookie camp on this same topic here at Oilersjambalaya and can't but help bring some things to light once again.

I have no real concerns with Belanger and his FO% as he sits around 6th best in the entire league. That is why we brought him in. We needed a FO specialist and a key PK man. Belanger is just that. We also are banking on him teaching the younger centermen as well through mentoring.

While Horcoff was faring well in FO% early on, he has really taken a dive recently, which brings me to my concern. Horcoff continues to take key defensive zone FO's when RNH would normally be out there on the ice. I get that, and while he is learning the trade, I am ok with that. Where my concern comes in, is the PP.

When Horcoff is playing on our 1st unit PP, I have concerns. If he was winning say 54% of those draws, I could fathom that. But he is not! So when he loses the draw, the puck goes to our end and we are bringing it back up the ice with Horcoff still on the 1st unit PP. The play most often will die with him on the ice. I am sure most would agree that Horcoff is not a 1st unit PP guy. Yes, RNH may lose a faceoff, but I would much rather a creative offensive player out there with RNH, other then Horcoff who can control and move the puck around in the opponents end on the PP.

I am thinking the rationale for Renney is that RNH will lose more draws then he wins and therefore cost more valuable PP time. Maybe, but maybe not! Let's actually take a closer look at the FO% on the PP between Horcoff and RNH.

Horcoff is 50% (only 41.9% in offensive zone during road trip)

RNH is 38.5% (39.1% in offensive zone during road trip)

So that means if Nugent-Hopkins gets 3 or 4 PP Faceoff opportunities maybe the Oilers have to go back 2 or 3 times into their own end to bring the puck back up? Compare that to how many times Horcoff loses the puck in the offensive zone and we have to go back to our end to retrieve it. (let's say 2 to 3 times) Does it really make sense to have Horcoff taking more PP time up from another gifted PP player on our team? I say it doesn't and only slows the development of this team's PP. In fact Horcoff is 58.5% in FO% on the PK, so why not allow him to focus on that even more? Not to mention his Faceoff workload will eventually become too much, he even mentioned as much last year and he is on pace to be taking the same amount this year.

Currently the difference in overall FO% is...

Horcoff 49.7%

RNH 35.9%

However on our recent road trip the Oilers just returned from, showed a dramatic difference..

Horcoff 28.9% in 152 attempts.

RNH 32.9% in 79 attempts.

While Horcoff faced a greater number of attempts (almost twice the faceoffs), RNH was also facing tougher competition due to not getting last change while on the 6 game road trip. As well many coaches believe that offensive zone draws are harder due to defending team fighting harder in own zone. (not all believe this but it is worth a mention)

I find it also interesting how few discuss Lander's disappointing FO% but RNH is mentioned for his low % quite often, while facing higher competition.

Lander is 37.2%  (41.7% at Home and 30.6% on the road)

RNH is 35.9% (30% at home and 41.3% on the road)

FO's on the road are more difficult because the visitor is required to put their stick in first on the faceoff dot but at home, you should have the advantage. RNH looks to be learning and it should be interesting to see if things improve in his FO% these next home games from previous  games in the season. I will be keeping track of his zone faceoffs while at Rexall these next 5 games as well as next 5 on the road and probably mention so in a Game Day post.

What would I do? Continue to develop RNH in the the faceoff dot. Allow him to take the draws on the PP and have Horcoff or Belanger to cover off in our defensive zone while Nugent-Hopkins continues to grow and improve. The goal according to the Oilers organization before the year started was development process, so I say allow the process to continue, but for the love of development, give Nugent-Hopkins PP time in the FO dot!

Having said all that, maybe I am totally out to lunch on this perspective and Renney is taking all this in a different light and has a process to which he believes will work best for development. All I can say is, if it's for development, then make sure the development is the priority. Still, can't see how allowing RNH to take the offensive zone PP draws would hinder this team if Horcoff was not on the ice during the PP.

Maybe your seeing the bigger picture behind Renney's methods. Be sure to comment and share your perspective and views. Are you behind the current process? How long do you continue to have Horcoff out there on the PP? When do you start phasing RNH in? Do you wait till his FO% is around 45% and upward first?

NOTE: All stats were found on the oilers website at www.edmontonoilers.com or at the NHL website at www.nhl.com

Cheers Oil Country!

For continued information on Oiler and Baron news and 2012/13 NHL draft watch, you can follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/revingev

Game Day "Blackhawks"

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been getting some punishment this road trip and the wear and tear has seemed to throw him off his game some. Those pretty passes through defenders have not been as good as early on in the season. Let's face it however, other teams know who he is now and they study how he plays. His creativity will have to evolve with the rest of his game as he feels his way around, not unlike Taylor Hall last year. I like his fight, his work ethic and his defensive awareness still, just looking forward to seeing him make the changes necessary for road games when he plays the tougher defence pairings and top line checkers.

The defence has been struggling as of late and will need to try and slow that pace down somewhat. Hopefully slowing things down will enable the defence to make smarter plays when getting the puck out from their own backend.

I am all for dump and chase but if the Oilers are going to play that game, they need to be the first in on the puck to make it work. Not to mention the idea of dumping and chasing is to forecheck the defenceman and make them rush the play. Maybe a little more urgency on getting back defensively and a few less turnovers could mean a good showing again for this young team.

The Oilers did not play a terrible game against Detroit but it was only mediocre. Boston they showed flashes but tonight? Bad bounces have been reversed now against us, so let's hope that begins to change once again, but this time into the Oilers favour. Who knows except the hockey gods! So, glasses up, and tip a toast to the hockey gods, that this one night , they look down upon the Edmonton Oilers with favour.

My predictions for tonight's game in Chicago

Gametime 5:00pm CHED630am/Sportsnet-Edm

REV'S Edmonton Oiler

Gameday Predictions Nov 13th/11

1.  Khabby should be the starter again and should be able to hold the Blackhawks to no more then 3 goals against. Will be a good test to see if he can regain that composure after the shutout loss

2. The Oilers are not showing much for fight back in these last couple games and now facing a even tougher team. I see another loss brewing tonight. Let's hope this prediction is wrong.

3. Belanger will return to form and get above the 52% FO% this night. Let's hope he doesn't fail two nights in a row.

4. RNH is due a game with another point or two, so let's say he gets back on the score sheet tonight.

5. Paajarvi played too few minutes last game, they really need to find a way for him to play more minute.s as it won't benefit his game to play under 10 minutes a night. Let's say Paajarvi hits a minimum of 10 minutes tonight or more.

(EV'S PREDICTIONS TO DATE: 32 for 60) (53% and counting)
No win and Belanger has a horrible night in the FO dot? During the telecast they were just saying how Eric was the 3rd best FO% in the league, and then he drops the ball? Hopefully tonight is a different story in the making.

As the great Ed Whalen used to say "In the meantime and in between time, that's it, for another edition of...REV'S PREDICTION" (bolded words are not Whalen's words)

For continued information on Oiler and Baron news and 2012/13 NHL draft watch, you can follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/revingev

Game Day "Red Wings"

I see a storm a brewing tonight! While this team may not be in the same class as the former 'Mighty Oil Machine' of the 80's, this team has a cast of player's who hate to lose just the same. Enter Anton Lander, Taylor Hall, Jordon Eberle. Ryan Smyth, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Magnus Paajarvi, Ladislav Smid and Andy Sutton.

Now of course, I have not heard the line up for tonight's game as of this posted blog, however after a humiliating loss that was suffered at the hands of the Big bad Bruins, I would expect that locker room to be spitting out the hate for the fear of losing. Let's hope that sweet smell of success they have experienced early makes them only more hungry.  What really makes a good team great, is when they will take no excuses for losing but don't just say it, they go out and turn it around. That was what we saw from the early 80's Oiler team that eventually made them so great.

I could go on and tell you some of the area's of the Oilers game that really bothered me last night, but let's face it, they already know it. Let's hope the Coach definitely knows it and just move on. Maybe at a time the team is winning again, I will bring it up and discuss it in a post. (of course some of you will not like that and want me to lay off the guys cause they are winning..lol)

Paajarvi needs to be back in this game as does Sutton. Not sure how you want to line it up, but I do agree with many others out there suggesting Barker and Eager need to be the ones sitting.

Let's get this game ON!

My predictions for tonight's game in Detroit

Gametime 5:30pm CHED630am/Sportsnet-Edm

REV'S Edmonton Oiler

Gameday Predictions Nov 11th/11

1.  Hemsky still put up points despite his rather poor decision making last night but against Detroit this should be a team he continues to rack up the points against, it's suited for his game. Hemsky with another point tonight.
2. After a tough loss to the Bruins I see the Oilers leaving Detroit with 2 points in the standings.
3. Belanger continues to stay above the 52% FO% this night. He will be in tougher against a real good FO team in Detroit.

4. The Oilers seem to lack discipline , so why change that against a even smarter veteran team in Detroit. The Oilers will be in the sin bin for 4 or more Penalties this game..
5. Last game surprised me that the Oilers allowed so many goals against but with Khabby back in net and a sharp lesson learned the Oilers will keep this game to within 3 goals max scored against.

(EV'S PREDICTIONS TO DATE: 30 for 55) (54.5% and counting)
Can you believe it? Another game that Horcoff still struggles in the FO dot? He is 40% only these past 4 games combined. Why? I believe it's the level of competition. Sure he won more early on, but the competition will continue to get stronger as the year moves on. Good news is RNH has done decent these past couple games. If RNH can keep his FO% to min of 40% per game, that will be progress.

)

As the great Ed Whalen used to say "In the meantime and in between time, that's it, for another edition of...REV'S PREDICTION" (bolded words are not Whalen's words)

For continued information on Oiler and Baron news and 2012/13 NHL draft watch, you can follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/revingev

Game Day "Bruins"

Playing on this road trip has been a real test for our young guns and their '106' line. Not to be forgotten however is, their being paired against the top checkers from the other team as well as the top two d-men mean the veteran line has a greater chance to get on the scoreboard. I like this idea actually. Sure I wish we could see more scoring. Let's look at this idea. Home, you match your Veterans up against the top lines by line matching. '106' line gets easy minutes to find the back of the net. On the road, the role reverses for the team and the Veterans provide the chunk of the offence. It also gives these young guys some learning experience while on the road on how tough this league really is.

I know some are still doubting this team, but c'mon, this team will NOW contend for a playoff spot. That is providing we don't suffer any injury news to significant players. It's not a fluke and while they are riding a high, they have yet to click offensively. Just think what happens once they come into their own and really take over games. I expect by the 30 game mark we will have the best idea of what we will be seeing come year end hockey.

In the meantime, another game that should be a fun one to watch. Looking for more shots on goal tonight.

My predictions for tonight's game in Boston

Gametime 5:00pm CHED630am/Sportsnet-Edm

REV'S Edmonton Oiler

Gameday Predictions Nov 10th/11

1.  Hall has been pressing like crazy and Boston seems to me to be the kind of team to get him out of his funk. Hall will pick up a point or more tonight.
2.Going to be a hard fought game but the goal differential will be no more then 2 goals for the winner.
3. Belanger will come through with a 52% or better in the FO% but not so sure I can say that for the others
4. If the Oilers thought Montreal played physical, wait til tonights game is over. They will be sore. Boston likes to hit. Being the Oil are the faster team we should see them on the power play at least three times tonight. I see them hitting the scoreboard on the PP again.
5. The Oilers will keep this game to within 3 goals max scored against

(EV'S PREDICTIONS TO DATE: 27 for 50)
Another game the other night where the Oilers Horcoff still struggles in the FO dot. Find it hard how people can say he is good in the dot. He wins sure, but to my eye, it seems to be against soft players themselves when it comes to faceoffs. Horcoff was all that stood in my way from a good prediction game (54% and counting)

As the great Ed Whalen used to say "In the meantime and in between time, that's it, for another edition of...REV'S PREDICTION" (bolded words are not Whalen's words)

For continued information on Oiler and Baron news and 2012/13 NHL draft watch, you can follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/revingev

Oilers 2012 NHL Draft Watch "Morgan Reilly"

Today we examine the #5 ranked player from REVS 2012 Prospects List .Each player is unique in their own right and full of talent. The ranking does not reflect a mock draft of who a team may actually pick but rather who I would place as the best player available in that spot.

5. Morgan Reilly

Pos: D

HT:6'0 ft
WT:190 lbs

Born: Vancouver BC

2010-11 WHL Warriors Games 65 G 6 A 22 PTS 28

2011-12 WHL Warriors Games 17 G 3 A 15 PTS 18

Morgan Reilly will be a highly sought after player at the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Being a mobile defenseman, with slick offensive capabilities is considered a rare commodity these days. Before being drafted into the WHL  he put up 55 points  in 43 games for the Notre Dame Hounds, and  had  9 points in the playoffs, while leading them to a Saskatchewan Midget AAA Provincial and Telus Cup Championship. As a 15-year-old Morgan was drafted 1st round pick (2nd overall) in the 2009 WHL Bantam Draft.

Morgan is considered in the same mold as Duncan Keith. He is an exceptional skater,  unreal hockey sense and vision, not to mention  a great shot. Does not panic , and makes those around him better with his ability to create offense off the rush.  He brings a fearless sense of playmaking ability. Tyler Boldt has stated ‘At such a young age, he’s a pretty dynamic and fearless defenseman on the offensive side of the game”

Reilly represented Canada at the under 18’s and the Ivan Hlinka tournament as well took part in the NHL’s Research and Development Camp. He really has done all the elite things that elite level players do up to their draft time.

Morgan is #5

'Dreaming'

-- Whitney/Reilly

-- Gilbert/Smid

-- Teubert/Petry

-- Potter

While I know Morgan could not step into that role immediately as first line pairing, he is definitely looking good to be a player in that potential should he continue to grow as he has shown each year to date. A date with the World Jr team this New year would go a long ways to gaining more attention from scouts come draft time.

For continued information on Oiler and Baron news and 2012/13 NHL draft watch, you can follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/revingev